Monday, April 11, 2011

Politics . . . not as usual in Peru

The Presidential race is heating up. Officially, the Peruvian elections are held on April 10 - but there is a few days when the ballots are counted and the results stream-in (remember this is a vast country with very isolated communities in the jungles and high mountains).

Okay, drum roll please - the results are very interesting to say the least. Remember, in order for an outright winner to be announced, one candidate must gain greater than 50% of the general casted votes. So really, it is impossible for an official winner to be announced from the general election. Rather, the top two vote getting candidates go to a run off. And, the suspense is building . . . those candidates, at this point, are likely to be . . . Ollanta Humala and Keiko Fujimori (See: http://www.livinginperu.com/news/14628).

This is a really big surprise. Up to a month ago - Toledo was drawing the greatest favor. I have been saying all along - just wait for the last week of the campaign, Ollanta and Fujimori will come on strong. Come on strong they have. Currently 86% of the ballots have been counted and Humala is in with almost 32% of the votes and Fujimori has a distant second place vote getting at 23.2%. Third place horse in the race is PPK at 19.2%.

Famed Peruvian Noble Laureate Mario Vargas Llosa has gone on record as saying the match-up between Humala and Fujimori is "no less a choice between AIDS and terminal cancer" (I will let you decide who is what). Not exactly flattering words from a person of such distinguished prose.

Stay tuned - the race is far from over. One thing is, however, for sure - the Peru of the future is going to be different. The politics of Humala are not the politics of Garcia or Toledo. His nationalism agenda will inevitably lead to a different political ideology. Equally, Keiko is a political unknown and has a lot to prove for her very young age.

Whatever the outcome, the people of Peru have spoken and demand a change. The trickle down, so earnestly promised by previous administrations, has yet to come to fruition. A new political machine will need to meet the demands of the people living in the Los Cerros. Whoever wins the run off election on June 05 will need to be more observant to the 40+% of the Peruvian population that still lives in abject poverty.

The future has a lot to tell. Stay tuned.